Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Forrest Petz
Daniel Roberts
67%
33%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 2"
74"
35
Age
Δ 5y
30
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Current streak
L1
0
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Petz: 21 sig / 1 TD ·
Roberts: 5 sig / 6 TD
Forrest Petz
Daniel Roberts
32
Sig strikes landed
22
58
Sig strikes attempted
56
49
Total strikes landed
36
1.0
Takedowns landed
1.9
1.9
Takedowns attempted
2.7
0.30
Knockdowns
0.10
152s
Control time
167s
Method
Decision
42%
KO/TKO
33%
Submission
25%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Forrest Petz
"The Meat Cleaver"
0-0
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
35
Blue corner
L1
Daniel Roberts
"Ninja"
15-8
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
74"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
30
In our database
1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L
UFC Live: Vera vs Jones
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