Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Jon Madsen
Karlos Vemola
34%
66%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 3"
75"
30
Age
Δ 5y
25
W1
Current streak
—
1
UFC fights in our DB
0
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Madsen: 37 sig / 3 TD ·
Vemola: 16 sig / 0 TD
Jon Madsen
Karlos Vemola
31
Sig strikes landed
40
75
Sig strikes attempted
91
38
Total strikes landed
56
0.4
Takedowns landed
1.4
1.7
Takedowns attempted
2.4
0.30
Knockdowns
0.40
78s
Control time
187s
Method
Decision
46%
KO/TKO
46%
Submission
8%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Jon Madsen
9-2
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
UFC 112: Invincible
—
Blue corner
Karlos Vemola
0-0
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
25