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George Sotiropoulos vs Kurt Pellegrino

UFC 116: Lesnar vs Carwin ·MGM Grand Garden Arena

Statlab take

baseline
Lean Confidence: High
George Sotiropoulos
Kurt Pellegrino
44% 56%
Why
71"
Reach
Δ 0"
70"
33
Age
Δ 2y
31
15-7
Career record
Δ 3 pp
17-7
W1
Current streak
W1
1
UFC fights in our DB
1

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Sotiropoulos: 48 sig / 1 TD · Pellegrino: 39 sig / 3 TD
George Sotiropoulos
Kurt Pellegrino
14
Sig strikes landed
22
46
Sig strikes attempted
53
35
Total strikes landed
42
0.9
Takedowns landed
1.4
3.0
Takedowns attempted
4.2
0.10
Knockdowns
0.30
130s
Control time
246s
Method
Decision
36%
KO/TKO
26%
Submission
37%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
W1

George Sotiropoulos

15-7
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database 1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W UFC 110: Nogueira vs Velasquez
Blue corner
W1

Kurt Pellegrino

"Batman"
17-7
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database 1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W UFC 111: St-Pierre vs Hardy