Main
Light Heavyweight
Krzysztof Soszynski vs Stephan Bonnar
UFC 116: Lesnar vs Carwin
·MGM Grand Garden Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Krzysztof Soszynski
Stephan Bonnar
36%
64%
Why
78"
Reach
Δ 2"
79"
33
Age
Δ 0y
33
27-12-1
Career record
Δ 8 pp
15-10
W1
Current streak
L1
1
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 2
Soszynski: 32 sig / 0 TD ·
Bonnar: 48 sig / 2 TD
Krzysztof Soszynski
Stephan Bonnar
54
Sig strikes landed
37
123
Sig strikes attempted
94
74
Total strikes landed
51
1.1
Takedowns landed
0.9
2.9
Takedowns attempted
3.6
0.40
Knockdowns
0.10
139s
Control time
99s
Method
Decision
37%
KO/TKO
55%
Submission
8%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Krzysztof Soszynski
"The Polish Experiment"
27-12-1
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
78"
Stance
Open Stance
Age
33
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
UFC 110: Nogueira vs Velasquez
—
Blue corner
L1
Stephan Bonnar
"The American Psycho"
15-10
Career record
Height
76"
Reach
79"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database
1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L
UFC 110: Nogueira vs Velasquez
—