Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Chris Lytle
Matt Brown
63%
37%
Why
68"
Reach
Δ 7"
75"
36
Age
Δ 6y
30
32-18-5
Career record
Δ 2 pp
26-20
W1
Current streak
L1
1
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 2
Lytle: 19 sig / 0 TD ·
Brown: 25 sig / 1 TD
Chris Lytle
Matt Brown
25
Sig strikes landed
30
67
Sig strikes attempted
54
52
Total strikes landed
38
1.0
Takedowns landed
0.5
5.0
Takedowns attempted
1.9
0.50
Knockdowns
0.00
187s
Control time
95s
Method
Decision
42%
KO/TKO
35%
Submission
23%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Chris Lytle
"Lights Out"
32-18-5
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
68"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
36
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
UFC 110: Nogueira vs Velasquez
—
Blue corner
L1
Matt Brown
"The Immortal"
26-20
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L
UFC 111: St-Pierre vs Hardy
—