Main
Middleweight
Chris Leben vs Yoshihiro Akiyama
UFC 116: Lesnar vs Carwin
·MGM Grand Garden Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Chris Leben
Yoshihiro Akiyama
70%
30%
Why
73"
Reach
Δ 2"
75"
30
Age
Δ 5y
35
W2
Current streak
—
2
UFC fights in our DB
0
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 3
Leben: 46 sig / 0 TD ·
Akiyama: 27 sig / 5 TD
Chris Leben
Yoshihiro Akiyama
49
Sig strikes landed
26
93
Sig strikes attempted
67
80
Total strikes landed
42
1.6
Takedowns landed
0.7
5.0
Takedowns attempted
1.7
0.30
Knockdowns
0.10
177s
Control time
94s
Method
Decision
50%
KO/TKO
30%
Submission
21%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W2
Chris Leben
"The Crippler"
23-11
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
73"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
30
In our database
2 fights · 2-0
Last 2
W
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Lidd…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Maynard vs Diaz
—
Blue corner
Yoshihiro Akiyama
0-0
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
35