Back to UFC 116: Lesnar vs Carwin
🏆 Title fight Main Heavyweight

Brock Lesnar vs Shane Carwin

UFC 116: Lesnar vs Carwin ·MGM Grand Garden Arena
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Statlab take

baseline
Lean Confidence: High
Brock Lesnar
Shane Carwin
47% 53%
Why
81"
Reach
Δ 1"
80"
33
Age
Δ 2y
36
—
Current streak
W1
0
UFC fights in our DB
1

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Submission · Round 2
Lesnar: 8 sig / 1 TD · Carwin: 40 sig / 0 TD
Brock Lesnar
Shane Carwin
35
Sig strikes landed
87
67
Sig strikes attempted
93
41
Total strikes landed
91
0.5
Takedowns landed
1.0
1.1
Takedowns attempted
2.0
0.20
Knockdowns
0.50
54s
Control time
261s
Method
Decision
23%
KO/TKO
67%
Submission
10%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner

Brock Lesnar

0-0
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
81"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
Blue corner
W1

Shane Carwin

"The Engineer"
13-2
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
80"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
36
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