Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
RJ Clifford
Jeremy Umphries
74%
26%
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 2
RJ Clifford
Jeremy Umphries
42
Sig strikes landed
42
89
Sig strikes attempted
93
57
Total strikes landed
62
0.8
Takedowns landed
0.9
1.8
Takedowns attempted
1.8
0.20
Knockdowns
0.20
164s
Control time
164s
Method
Decision
36%
KO/TKO
40%
Submission
24%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
RJ Clifford
0-0
Career record
Blue corner
Jeremy Umphries
0-0
Career record