Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
KJ Noons
Conor Heun
63%
37%
Why
28
Age
Δ 4y
31
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Noons: 58 sig / 0 TD ·
Heun: 50 sig / 1 TD
KJ Noons
Conor Heun
38
Sig strikes landed
35
79
Sig strikes attempted
76
55
Total strikes landed
48
1.3
Takedowns landed
0.9
2.0
Takedowns attempted
2.2
0.40
Knockdowns
0.20
149s
Control time
112s
Method
Decision
40%
KO/TKO
42%
Submission
18%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
KJ Noons
"King"
0-0
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
Blue corner
Conor Heun
"Hurricane"
0-0
Career record
Height
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31