Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Marcus Kowal
Hugo Sandoval
83%
17%
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 2
Marcus Kowal
Hugo Sandoval
39
Sig strikes landed
39
86
Sig strikes attempted
85
51
Total strikes landed
50
1.0
Takedowns landed
0.6
2.2
Takedowns attempted
1.7
0.30
Knockdowns
0.30
157s
Control time
111s
Method
Decision
34%
KO/TKO
42%
Submission
24%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Marcus Kowal
0-0
Career record
Age
33
Blue corner
Hugo Sandoval
0-0
Career record