Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Trevor Prangley
Tim Kennedy
72%
28%
Why
75"
Reach
Δ 1"
74"
38
Age
Δ 7y
31
D1
Current streak
—
1
UFC fights in our DB
0
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Prangley: 2 sig / 0 TD ·
Kennedy: 9 sig / 1 TD
Trevor Prangley
Tim Kennedy
35
Sig strikes landed
37
76
Sig strikes attempted
79
52
Total strikes landed
53
1.1
Takedowns landed
1.1
1.9
Takedowns attempted
2.0
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
172s
Control time
149s
Method
Decision
41%
KO/TKO
44%
Submission
14%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
D1
Trevor Prangley
34-11-3
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
38
In our database
1 fight · 0-0
Last 1
D
Strikeforce Challengers 6
—
Blue corner
Tim Kennedy
0-0
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31