Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Marius Zaromskis
Evangelista Santos
78%
22%
Why
30
Age
Δ 3y
32
L1
Current streak
—
1
UFC fights in our DB
0
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Zaromskis: 8 sig / 0 TD ·
Santos: 15 sig / 0 TD
Marius Zaromskis
Evangelista Santos
37
Sig strikes landed
36
97
Sig strikes attempted
79
51
Total strikes landed
52
1.2
Takedowns landed
0.8
2.2
Takedowns attempted
2.5
0.50
Knockdowns
0.30
114s
Control time
76s
Method
Decision
47%
KO/TKO
41%
Submission
12%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Marius Zaromskis
"The Whitemare"
20-10
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L
Strikeforce - Miami
—
Blue corner
Evangelista Santos
"Cyborg"
0-0
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33