Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Robbie Lawler
Renato Sobral
38%
62%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 2"
76"
28
Age
Δ 7y
35
W1
Current streak
—
1
UFC fights in our DB
0
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Lawler: 33 sig / 0 TD ·
Sobral: 54 sig / 1 TD
Robbie Lawler
Renato Sobral
36
Sig strikes landed
25
85
Sig strikes attempted
57
36
Total strikes landed
46
1.4
Takedowns landed
0.9
1.0
Takedowns attempted
2.7
0.50
Knockdowns
0.10
79s
Control time
153s
Method
Decision
23%
KO/TKO
60%
Submission
17%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Robbie Lawler
"Ruthless"
31-16
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
74"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
28
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
Strikeforce - Miami
—
Blue corner
Renato Sobral
"Babalu"
0-0
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
35