Back to The Ultimate Fighter: Team Liddell vs Team Ortiz Finale
Middleweight

Brad Tavares vs Seth Baczynski

The Ultimate Fighter: Team Liddell vs Team Ortiz Finale ·Pearl Concert Theater
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Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Brad Tavares
Seth Baczynski
71% 29%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 1"
75"
22
Age
Δ 6y
29

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Tavares: 18 sig / 3 TD · Baczynski: 22 sig / 0 TD
Brad Tavares
Seth Baczynski
40
Sig strikes landed
35
86
Sig strikes attempted
81
55
Total strikes landed
51
1.1
Takedowns landed
1.1
1.9
Takedowns attempted
2.1
0.40
Knockdowns
0.20
137s
Control time
182s
Method
Decision
40%
KO/TKO
48%
Submission
12%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner

Brad Tavares

0-0
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
23
Blue corner

Seth Baczynski

"The Polish Pistola"
0-0
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29