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Lightweight

John Gunderson vs Mark Holst

The Ultimate Fighter: Team Liddell vs Team Ortiz Finale ·Pearl Concert Theater
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Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
John Gunderson
Mark Holst
76% 24%
Why
32
Age
Δ 7y
25
L1
Current streak
—
1
UFC fights in our DB
0

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Gunderson: 31 sig / 4 TD · Holst: 2 sig / 1 TD
John Gunderson
Mark Holst
37
Sig strikes landed
34
97
Sig strikes attempted
78
53
Total strikes landed
45
1.3
Takedowns landed
0.9
4.1
Takedowns attempted
1.7
0.30
Knockdowns
0.30
95s
Control time
118s
Method
Decision
40%
KO/TKO
38%
Submission
23%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
L1

John Gunderson

"Quick Guns"
35-17-2
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database 1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L UFC 108: Evans vs Silva
—
Blue corner

Mark Holst

"Boots"
0-0
Career record
Height
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
25