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Chris Leben vs Aaron Simpson

The Ultimate Fighter: Team Liddell vs Team Ortiz Finale ·Pearl Concert Theater
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Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Chris Leben
Aaron Simpson
81% 19%
Why
73"
Reach
73"
30
Age
Δ 6y
36
23-11
Career record
Δ 5 pp
13-5
W1
Current streak
W1
1
UFC fights in our DB
1

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 2
Leben: 42 sig / 0 TD · Simpson: 43 sig / 2 TD
Chris Leben
Aaron Simpson
39
Sig strikes landed
24
80
Sig strikes attempted
80
66
Total strikes landed
58
0.8
Takedowns landed
1.0
1.2
Takedowns attempted
5.6
0.30
Knockdowns
0.00
111s
Control time
144s
Method
Decision
52%
KO/TKO
24%
Submission
24%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
W1

Chris Leben

"The Crippler"
23-11
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
73"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
30
In our database 1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W UFC Fight Night: Maynard vs Diaz
—
Blue corner
W1

Aaron Simpson

"A-Train"
13-5
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
36
In our database 1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W UFC Fight Night: Maynard vs Diaz
—