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Keith Jardine vs Matt Hamill

The Ultimate Fighter: Team Liddell vs Team Ortiz Finale ·Pearl Concert Theater
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Statlab take

baseline
Clear edge Confidence: High
Keith Jardine
Matt Hamill
62% 38%
Why
76"
Reach
76"
35
Age
Δ 1y
34
L1
Current streak
—
1
UFC fights in our DB
0

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Majority · Round 3
Jardine: 65 sig / 0 TD · Hamill: 77 sig / 2 TD
Keith Jardine
Matt Hamill
31
Sig strikes landed
36
73
Sig strikes attempted
75
40
Total strikes landed
50
0.6
Takedowns landed
0.7
2.1
Takedowns attempted
2.4
0.40
Knockdowns
0.30
54s
Control time
90s
Method
Decision
30%
KO/TKO
59%
Submission
11%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
L1

Keith Jardine

"The Dean of Mean"
17-12-2
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
35
In our database 1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L UFC 110: Nogueira vs Velasquez
—
Blue corner

Matt Hamill

"The Hammer"
0-0
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34