Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Tarec Saffiedine
Nate Moore
88%
12%
Why
24
Age
Δ 3y
27
W1
Current streak
—
1
UFC fights in our DB
0
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 2
Saffiedine: 21 sig / 0 TD ·
Moore: 20 sig / 0 TD
Tarec Saffiedine
Nate Moore
60
Sig strikes landed
61
163
Sig strikes attempted
164
76
Total strikes landed
77
1.0
Takedowns landed
0.9
2.0
Takedowns attempted
3.1
0.50
Knockdowns
0.10
105s
Control time
75s
Method
Decision
49%
KO/TKO
40%
Submission
10%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Tarec Saffiedine
"Sponge"
17-7
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
71"
Stance
Switch
Age
24
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
Strikeforce Challengers 6
—
Blue corner
Nate Moore
0-0
Career record
Height
72"
Age
27