Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Tyron Woodley
Nathan Coy
74%
26%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 4"
70"
28
Age
Δ 4y
32
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Woodley: 45 sig / 2 TD ·
Coy: 82 sig / 1 TD
Tyron Woodley
Nathan Coy
40
Sig strikes landed
33
80
Sig strikes attempted
70
54
Total strikes landed
47
1.3
Takedowns landed
1.0
2.0
Takedowns attempted
2.4
0.40
Knockdowns
0.20
178s
Control time
131s
Method
Decision
43%
KO/TKO
42%
Submission
16%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Tyron Woodley
"The Chosen One"
0-0
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
Blue corner
Nathan Coy
"Soulforce"
0-0
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
70"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
32