Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Matt Lindland
Kevin Casey
65%
35%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 3"
77"
40
Age
Δ 11y
29
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 3
Lindland: 49 sig / 4 TD ·
Casey: 2 sig / 1 TD
Matt Lindland
Kevin Casey
38
Sig strikes landed
36
77
Sig strikes attempted
81
56
Total strikes landed
48
1.3
Takedowns landed
0.8
2.4
Takedowns attempted
1.3
0.30
Knockdowns
0.30
174s
Control time
135s
Method
Decision
36%
KO/TKO
51%
Submission
13%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Matt Lindland
"The Law"
0-0
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
74"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
40
Blue corner
Kevin Casey
"King"
0-0
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
77"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
29