Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Chris Cariaso
Rafael Rebello
66%
34%
Why
64"
Reach
Δ 2"
67"
29
Age
Δ 1y
30
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Cariaso: 64 sig / 1 TD ·
Rebello: 17 sig / 5 TD
Chris Cariaso
Rafael Rebello
37
Sig strikes landed
35
76
Sig strikes attempted
77
53
Total strikes landed
49
1.5
Takedowns landed
0.9
2.5
Takedowns attempted
1.7
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
162s
Control time
132s
Method
Decision
41%
KO/TKO
39%
Submission
19%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Chris Cariaso
"Kamikaze"
0-0
Career record
Height
63"
Reach
65"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
29
Blue corner
Rafael Rebello
"Rafinha"
0-0
Career record
Height
65"
Reach
67"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30