Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Raphael Assuncao
Diego Nunes
70%
30%
Why
66"
Reach
Δ 0"
67"
28
Age
Δ 0y
28
L1
Current streak
—
1
UFC fights in our DB
0
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Assuncao: 34 sig / 2 TD ·
Nunes: 37 sig / 0 TD
Raphael Assuncao
Diego Nunes
25
Sig strikes landed
33
66
Sig strikes attempted
68
46
Total strikes landed
53
2.1
Takedowns landed
1.0
3.5
Takedowns attempted
1.0
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
140s
Control time
141s
Method
Decision
45%
KO/TKO
29%
Submission
26%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Raphael Assuncao
28-11
Career record
Height
65"
Reach
67"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database
1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L
WEC 46: Varner vs. Henderson
—
Blue corner
Diego Nunes
"The Gun"
0-0
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
67"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28