Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Anthony Leone
Renan Barao
19%
81%
Why
23
Age
Δ 0y
23
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 3
Leone: 22 sig / 1 TD ·
Barao: 28 sig / 1 TD
Anthony Leone
Renan Barao
33
Sig strikes landed
40
74
Sig strikes attempted
82
46
Total strikes landed
55
1.1
Takedowns landed
1.3
2.3
Takedowns attempted
2.3
0.20
Knockdowns
0.40
112s
Control time
130s
Method
Decision
46%
KO/TKO
35%
Submission
20%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Anthony Leone
0-0
Career record
Height
66"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
23
Blue corner
Renan Barao
"The Baron"
0-0
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
23