Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Erik Koch
Bendy Casimir
80%
20%
Why
22
Age
Δ 8y
30
16-7
Career record
Δ 16 pp
20-15-2
L1
Current streak
L1
1
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Koch: 14 sig / 0 TD ·
Casimir: 1 sig / 0 TD
Erik Koch
Bendy Casimir
37
Sig strikes landed
23
91
Sig strikes attempted
70
46
Total strikes landed
46
1.1
Takedowns landed
1.7
1.8
Takedowns attempted
4.4
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
133s
Control time
147s
Method
Decision
35%
KO/TKO
24%
Submission
40%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Erik Koch
"Phoenix"
16-7
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
72"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
22
In our database
1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L
WEC 47: Bowles vs. Cruz
—
Blue corner
L1
Bendy Casimir
20-15-2
Career record
Height
65"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
30
In our database
1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L
WEC 47: Bowles vs. Cruz
—