Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Norifumi Yamamoto
Federico Lopez
65%
35%
Why
33
Age
Δ 7y
26
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Yamamoto: 9 sig / 0 TD ·
Lopez: 3 sig / 0 TD
Norifumi Yamamoto
Federico Lopez
37
Sig strikes landed
35
77
Sig strikes attempted
78
58
Total strikes landed
52
1.6
Takedowns landed
0.8
2.4
Takedowns attempted
1.7
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
216s
Control time
121s
Method
Decision
47%
KO/TKO
32%
Submission
21%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Norifumi Yamamoto
"Kid"
0-0
Career record
Height
64"
Reach
66"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
33
Blue corner
Federico Lopez
"Kiko"
0-0
Career record
Height
64"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
26