Statlab take
baseline
Lean
Confidence: High
Hideo Tokoro
Akiyo Nishiura
47%
53%
Why
33
Age
Δ 6y
27
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Tokoro: 1 sig / 0 TD ·
Nishiura: 14 sig / 0 TD
Hideo Tokoro
Akiyo Nishiura
43
Sig strikes landed
35
80
Sig strikes attempted
77
56
Total strikes landed
54
1.4
Takedowns landed
1.1
2.1
Takedowns attempted
2.0
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
158s
Control time
136s
Method
Decision
63%
KO/TKO
22%
Submission
15%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Hideo Tokoro
0-0
Career record
Height
67"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
Blue corner
Akiyo Nishiura
"Wicky Akiyo"
0-0
Career record
Height
68"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
27