Statlab take
baseline
Toss-up
Confidence: High
Kazushi Sakuraba
Ralek Gracie
48%
52%
Why
41
Age
Δ 16y
25
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Sakuraba: 16 sig / 0 TD ·
Gracie: 26 sig / 2 TD
Kazushi Sakuraba
Ralek Gracie
43
Sig strikes landed
38
81
Sig strikes attempted
86
55
Total strikes landed
63
1.3
Takedowns landed
0.6
1.4
Takedowns attempted
2.3
0.40
Knockdowns
0.50
198s
Control time
124s
Method
Decision
51%
KO/TKO
33%
Submission
16%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Kazushi Sakuraba
"The Gracie Hunter"
0-0
Career record
Height
72"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
41
Blue corner
Ralek Gracie
0-0
Career record
Height
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
25