Statlab take
baseline
Lean
Confidence: High
Nick Diaz
Hayato Sakurai
47%
53%
Why
27
Age
Δ 8y
35
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Diaz: 8 sig / 1 TD ·
Sakurai: 7 sig / 1 TD
Nick Diaz
Hayato Sakurai
36
Sig strikes landed
28
78
Sig strikes attempted
59
53
Total strikes landed
47
1.1
Takedowns landed
1.6
1.3
Takedowns attempted
2.4
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
128s
Control time
171s
Method
Decision
44%
KO/TKO
31%
Submission
24%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Nick Diaz
0-0
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
76"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
27
Blue corner
Hayato Sakurai
"Mach"
0-0
Career record
Height
67"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
35