Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Kazuyuki Miyata
Takafumi Otsuka
34%
66%
Why
34
Age
Δ 10y
24
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Miyata: 35 sig / 2 TD ·
Otsuka: 28 sig / 1 TD
Kazuyuki Miyata
Takafumi Otsuka
33
Sig strikes landed
43
71
Sig strikes attempted
82
50
Total strikes landed
59
1.1
Takedowns landed
1.2
2.4
Takedowns attempted
1.7
0.20
Knockdowns
0.40
172s
Control time
130s
Method
Decision
45%
KO/TKO
36%
Submission
19%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Kazuyuki Miyata
0-0
Career record
Height
68"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
Blue corner
Takafumi Otsuka
0-0
Career record
Height
66"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
24