Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Ben Rothwell
Gilbert Yvel
71%
29%
Why
78"
Reach
Δ 2"
77"
29
Age
Δ 5y
34
—
Current streak
L1
0
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Rothwell: 44 sig / 5 TD ·
Yvel: 33 sig / 0 TD
Ben Rothwell
Gilbert Yvel
34
Sig strikes landed
24
76
Sig strikes attempted
67
45
Total strikes landed
30
0.6
Takedowns landed
0.6
1.4
Takedowns attempted
3.3
0.30
Knockdowns
0.40
82s
Control time
92s
Method
Decision
37%
KO/TKO
45%
Submission
18%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Ben Rothwell
0-0
Career record
Height
76"
Reach
79"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
Blue corner
L1
Gilbert Yvel
"The Hurricane"
39-17-1
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
77"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
In our database
1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L
UFC 108: Evans vs Silva
—