Statlab take
baseline
Lean
Confidence: High
Carlos Condit
Rory MacDonald
56%
44%
Why
76"
Reach
Δ 1"
76"
26
Age
Δ 5y
21
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Current streak
W1
0
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 3
Condit: 72 sig / 0 TD ·
MacDonald: 29 sig / 3 TD
Carlos Condit
Rory MacDonald
24
Sig strikes landed
28
58
Sig strikes attempted
64
42
Total strikes landed
47
0.4
Takedowns landed
1.9
0.9
Takedowns attempted
4.3
0.20
Knockdowns
0.20
74s
Control time
217s
Method
Decision
30%
KO/TKO
24%
Submission
46%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Carlos Condit
"The Natural Born Killer"
0-0
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
26
Blue corner
W1
Rory MacDonald
"Red King"
20-4
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
77"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
21
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
UFC Fight Night: Maynard vs Diaz
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