Statlab take
baseline
Lean
Confidence: High
Paulo Thiago
Martin Kampmann
46%
54%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 2"
72"
29
Age
Δ 1y
28
19-9
Career record
Δ 7 pp
21-7
W1
Current streak
W1
1
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Thiago: 13 sig / 1 TD ·
Kampmann: 24 sig / 1 TD
Paulo Thiago
Martin Kampmann
22
Sig strikes landed
27
74
Sig strikes attempted
73
26
Total strikes landed
33
0.3
Takedowns landed
0.7
0.9
Takedowns attempted
1.9
0.20
Knockdowns
0.20
39s
Control time
98s
Method
Decision
19%
KO/TKO
61%
Submission
20%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Paulo Thiago
19-9
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
UFC 109: Relentless
—
Blue corner
W1
Martin Kampmann
"The Hitman"
21-7
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
UFC 108: Evans vs Silva
—