Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Mirko Filipovic
Pat Barry
90%
10%
Why
73"
Reach
Δ 2"
74"
36
Age
Δ 5y
31
W1
Current streak
—
1
UFC fights in our DB
0
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 3
Filipovic: 42 sig / 0 TD ·
Barry: 25 sig / 0 TD
Mirko Filipovic
Pat Barry
33
Sig strikes landed
23
62
Sig strikes attempted
48
52
Total strikes landed
31
1.6
Takedowns landed
0.3
4.1
Takedowns attempted
0.8
0.20
Knockdowns
0.20
212s
Control time
73s
Method
Decision
35%
KO/TKO
49%
Submission
16%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Mirko Filipovic
"Cro Cop"
36-11-2
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
73"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
36
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
UFC 110: Nogueira vs Velasquez
—
Blue corner
Pat Barry
"HD"
0-0
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31