Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Chuck Liddell
Rich Franklin
30%
70%
Why
76"
Reach
Δ 0"
76"
40
Age
Δ 5y
36
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Liddell: 17 sig / 1 TD ·
Franklin: 24 sig / 0 TD
Chuck Liddell
Rich Franklin
31
Sig strikes landed
35
71
Sig strikes attempted
72
49
Total strikes landed
52
1.0
Takedowns landed
1.1
2.1
Takedowns attempted
2.2
0.20
Knockdowns
0.40
109s
Control time
127s
Method
Decision
41%
KO/TKO
46%
Submission
13%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Chuck Liddell
"The Iceman"
0-0
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
77"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
41
Blue corner
Rich Franklin
"Ace"
0-0
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
76"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
36