Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Dustin Ortiz
Justin Pennington
91%
9%
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Dustin Ortiz
Justin Pennington
43
Sig strikes landed
39
100
Sig strikes attempted
88
58
Total strikes landed
51
1.3
Takedowns landed
0.9
1.9
Takedowns attempted
2.5
0.50
Knockdowns
0.20
178s
Control time
108s
Method
Decision
45%
KO/TKO
35%
Submission
20%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Dustin Ortiz
0-0
Career record
Height
65"
Reach
65"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
21
Blue corner
Justin Pennington
0-0
Career record
Height
64"