Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Josh Shockman
Cale Yarbrough
43%
57%
Why
29
Age
Δ 6y
23
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 2
Josh Shockman
Cale Yarbrough
34
Sig strikes landed
35
68
Sig strikes attempted
72
47
Total strikes landed
51
1.0
Takedowns landed
1.2
1.9
Takedowns attempted
1.7
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
154s
Control time
155s
Method
Decision
39%
KO/TKO
48%
Submission
13%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Josh Shockman
"The War Hammer"
0-0
Career record
Height
76"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
29
Blue corner
Cale Yarbrough
0-0
Career record
Height
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
23