Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Jason Miller
Tim Stout
92%
8%
Why
29
Age
Δ 2y
31
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Jason Miller
Tim Stout
46
Sig strikes landed
38
113
Sig strikes attempted
102
64
Total strikes landed
53
1.2
Takedowns landed
1.0
2.1
Takedowns attempted
2.2
0.40
Knockdowns
0.20
143s
Control time
114s
Method
Decision
40%
KO/TKO
46%
Submission
14%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Jason Miller
"Mayhem"
0-0
Career record
Height
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
Blue corner
Tim Stout
0-0
Career record
Height
71"
Age
31