Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Dustin West
Andy Uhrich
69%
31%
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Dustin West
Andy Uhrich
38
Sig strikes landed
43
102
Sig strikes attempted
108
51
Total strikes landed
58
1.1
Takedowns landed
1.0
2.0
Takedowns attempted
1.7
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
117s
Control time
159s
Method
Decision
41%
KO/TKO
44%
Submission
15%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Dustin West
0-0
Career record
Height
71"
Blue corner
Andy Uhrich
0-0
Career record
Height
72"