Statlab take
baseline
Lean
Confidence: High
Chris Hawk
Ovince Saint Preux
54%
46%
Why
24
Age
Δ 3y
27
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Chris Hawk
Ovince Saint Preux
36
Sig strikes landed
46
101
Sig strikes attempted
107
46
Total strikes landed
65
0.7
Takedowns landed
1.0
1.9
Takedowns attempted
1.7
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
100s
Control time
156s
Method
Decision
38%
KO/TKO
50%
Submission
13%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Chris Hawk
0-0
Career record
Height
73"
Age
24
Blue corner
Ovince Saint Preux
0-0
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
80"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
27