Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Gegard Mousasi
Muhammed Lawal
93%
7%
Why
76"
Reach
Δ 2"
78"
25
Age
Δ 5y
29
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 5
Mousasi: 45 sig / 0 TD ·
Lawal: 66 sig / 11 TD
Gegard Mousasi
Muhammed Lawal
35
Sig strikes landed
29
73
Sig strikes attempted
68
50
Total strikes landed
41
1.1
Takedowns landed
1.2
1.8
Takedowns attempted
2.1
0.40
Knockdowns
0.20
125s
Control time
167s
Method
Decision
33%
KO/TKO
52%
Submission
15%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Gegard Mousasi
0-0
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
25
Blue corner
Muhammed Lawal
"King Mo"
0-0
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
78"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
29