Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Gilbert Melendez
Shinya Aoki
18%
82%
Why
28
Age
Δ 1y
27
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 5
Melendez: 69 sig / 0 TD ·
Aoki: 11 sig / 0 TD
Gilbert Melendez
Shinya Aoki
32
Sig strikes landed
35
71
Sig strikes attempted
76
46
Total strikes landed
49
1.3
Takedowns landed
1.3
2.1
Takedowns attempted
1.8
0.30
Knockdowns
0.30
130s
Control time
123s
Method
Decision
42%
KO/TKO
38%
Submission
20%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Gilbert Melendez
"El Nino"
0-0
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
Blue corner
Shinya Aoki
"Tobikan Judan"
0-0
Career record
Height
71"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
27