Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Jake Shields
Dan Henderson
78%
22%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 2"
74"
31
Age
Δ 8y
40
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 5
Shields: 73 sig / 4 TD ·
Henderson: 29 sig / 0 TD
Jake Shields
Dan Henderson
39
Sig strikes landed
32
81
Sig strikes attempted
74
57
Total strikes landed
48
1.1
Takedowns landed
1.1
2.0
Takedowns attempted
2.0
0.40
Knockdowns
0.30
149s
Control time
148s
Method
Decision
40%
KO/TKO
45%
Submission
14%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Jake Shields
0-0
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
Blue corner
Dan Henderson
"Hendo"
0-0
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
40