Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Tom Aaron
Eric Steenberg
69%
31%
Why
32
Age
Δ 5y
27
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Tom Aaron
Eric Steenberg
44
Sig strikes landed
45
94
Sig strikes attempted
97
61
Total strikes landed
61
0.6
Takedowns landed
1.0
1.4
Takedowns attempted
1.6
0.10
Knockdowns
0.20
159s
Control time
182s
Method
Decision
44%
KO/TKO
37%
Submission
20%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Tom Aaron
0-0
Career record
Age
32
Blue corner
Eric Steenberg
0-0
Career record
Age
27