Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Matt Ricehouse
Greg Wilson
86%
14%
Why
23
Age
Δ 2y
22
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 3
Matt Ricehouse
Greg Wilson
42
Sig strikes landed
41
101
Sig strikes attempted
99
59
Total strikes landed
51
0.9
Takedowns landed
0.6
1.7
Takedowns attempted
1.7
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
157s
Control time
111s
Method
Decision
42%
KO/TKO
41%
Submission
17%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Matt Ricehouse
0-0
Career record
Age
23
Blue corner
Greg Wilson
0-0
Career record
Age
22