Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Jesse Finney
Justin DeMoney
41%
59%
Why
36
Age
Δ 11y
25
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Jesse Finney
Justin DeMoney
46
Sig strikes landed
41
91
Sig strikes attempted
95
61
Total strikes landed
62
0.8
Takedowns landed
1.8
1.7
Takedowns attempted
1.8
0.10
Knockdowns
0.50
148s
Control time
199s
Method
Decision
31%
KO/TKO
30%
Submission
38%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Jesse Finney
0-0
Career record
Height
72"
Age
36
Blue corner
Justin DeMoney
0-0
Career record
Age
25