Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Vitor Ribeiro
Lyle Beerbohm
43%
57%
Why
31
Age
Δ 0y
31
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Ribeiro: 18 sig / 3 TD ·
Beerbohm: 37 sig / 0 TD
Vitor Ribeiro
Lyle Beerbohm
34
Sig strikes landed
36
73
Sig strikes attempted
77
49
Total strikes landed
54
1.4
Takedowns landed
1.5
2.9
Takedowns attempted
3.0
0.30
Knockdowns
0.30
139s
Control time
154s
Method
Decision
45%
KO/TKO
38%
Submission
17%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Vitor Ribeiro
"Shaolin"
0-0
Career record
Height
68"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
Blue corner
Lyle Beerbohm
"Fancy Pants"
0-0
Career record
Height
70"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
31