Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Roger Gracie
Kevin Randleman
80%
20%
Why
29
Age
Δ 10y
39
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 2
Gracie: 15 sig / 0 TD ·
Randleman: 7 sig / 0 TD
Roger Gracie
Kevin Randleman
40
Sig strikes landed
32
88
Sig strikes attempted
61
54
Total strikes landed
53
0.8
Takedowns landed
1.4
1.2
Takedowns attempted
2.1
0.30
Knockdowns
0.30
115s
Control time
213s
Method
Decision
35%
KO/TKO
54%
Submission
12%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Roger Gracie
0-0
Career record
Height
76"
Reach
79"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
Blue corner
Kevin Randleman
"The Monster"
0-0
Career record
Height
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
39