Statlab take
baseline
Lean
Confidence: High
Jacare Souza
Joey Villasenor
56%
44%
Why
30
Age
Δ 4y
35
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Souza: 45 sig / 8 TD ·
Villasenor: 13 sig / 0 TD
Jacare Souza
Joey Villasenor
39
Sig strikes landed
38
81
Sig strikes attempted
75
58
Total strikes landed
55
1.2
Takedowns landed
1.3
1.9
Takedowns attempted
2.3
0.40
Knockdowns
0.20
135s
Control time
161s
Method
Decision
47%
KO/TKO
32%
Submission
21%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Jacare Souza
0-0
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
Blue corner
Joey Villasenor
"Smokin' Joe"
0-0
Career record
Height
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
35