Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Andrei Arlovski
Antonio Silva
61%
39%
Why
77"
Reach
Δ 5"
82"
31
Age
Δ 1y
31
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Arlovski: 30 sig / 0 TD ·
Silva: 47 sig / 2 TD
Andrei Arlovski
Antonio Silva
42
Sig strikes landed
36
81
Sig strikes attempted
78
53
Total strikes landed
51
1.0
Takedowns landed
0.9
2.0
Takedowns attempted
1.8
0.20
Knockdowns
0.20
142s
Control time
175s
Method
Decision
58%
KO/TKO
34%
Submission
8%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Andrei Arlovski
"The Pitbull"
0-0
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
77"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
Blue corner
Antonio Silva
"Bigfoot"
0-0
Career record
Height
76"
Reach
82"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31