Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Alistair Overeem
Brett Rogers
91%
9%
Why
80"
Reach
Δ 2"
82"
30
Age
Δ 1y
29
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Overeem: 39 sig / 1 TD ·
Rogers: 1 sig / 0 TD
Alistair Overeem
Brett Rogers
36
Sig strikes landed
34
72
Sig strikes attempted
75
58
Total strikes landed
46
0.9
Takedowns landed
0.8
1.4
Takedowns attempted
1.5
0.40
Knockdowns
0.20
121s
Control time
147s
Method
Decision
34%
KO/TKO
54%
Submission
12%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Alistair Overeem
"The Demolition Man"
0-0
Career record
Height
76"
Reach
80"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
Blue corner
Brett Rogers
"The Grim"
0-0
Career record
Height
77"
Reach
82"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29